The final chapter for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has begun; George Orwell’s 1984 and Animal Farm are incredibly prescient to the inexorable path that every communist regime will tread. The CCP is no exception. We are now witnessing the beginning of the undoing of the CCP. As with any authoritarian government, the CCP will not go quietly and they will do everything to stay in power regardless of the price. Even if it means killing half of the population, wiping out entire ethnic groups, creating bio-weapons to obliterate any country it deems a threat and going to war just to distract the people’s attention from the real enemy which is the CCP.

The parody of Orwell’s Animal Farm aptly portrays the communist ideology. It always starts off well with equality for everyone but with time human selfishness starts in creep in and those in power helping themselves to more than their fair share. The gap between the haves and the have-nots widens to such an extent that we get a society with a small class of uber rich and the rest of the country so poor they can hardly eat. Li Keqiang said in 2020 that there are 600 million people (which is almost half of the population) subsisting on less than RMB1,000/month (around USD 150) which must pay for housing, utilities, food, medication, etc. Xi Jinping claims to have wiped out poverty but in reality the majority of the population remains below the poverty line.

With any authoritarian government, it can be great when the leadership is benevolent, sound and effective but all it takes is one renegade leader to come along and undo all the good its predecessors have achieved. Since Xi Jinping took over the CCP, China’s relations with the rest of the world has deteriorated no end, the economy has faltered and a global pandemic was started in Wuhan. The Uighurs in Xinjiang are being exterminated and all the women who spend any time in the concentration camps lose the ability to bear children. The systematic sterilisation of this ethnic minority is a heinous crime that deserves our condemnation. Peaceful demonstrations in Hong Kong were met with violent suppression and the National Security Law, enacted in 2020, is a blanket law that legalises the systematic arrest and removal of any voice of dissent. All the lawmakers who were democratically elected have been removed or jailed, all news outlets that present an alternative viewpoint or are critical of the government have been closed down – Apple Daily, Stand News, etc. to name few. Key Opinion Leaders (KOLs) on Youtube channels and other social media channels who speak out about what is really going on in Hong Kong have either fled the country or have been arrested.

Faced with discontent within the party and a grumbling populace Xi Jinping has no choice but to attack Taiwan – by doing so he can secure his position and continue to stay in power and distract the Chinese people from focusing on the real enemy which is the CCP. He is not daft and understands that he does not have the luxury of time; having removed termed office in 2018 he wants to rule China forever – he wants to pursue a third term in office and attacking Taiwan will give him the perfect excuse to do so. Unfortunately, the attack of Taiwan will lead to the immediate retaliation from Japan, America, Australia, UK, Korea and other allied countries; China will ostracised by the international community, trade will slow to a trickle, a run on the Yuan will ensue causing a massive depreciation of the Chinese currency, uncontrollable inflation and capital flight. All of Hong Kong’s foreign reserves will be commandeered and exhausted within a few months. The CCP will then turn into a military government that will openly suppress the people.

China’s chances of a successful armed take-over of Taiwan is very slim but the only option available to Xi Jinping and a gamble he is going to take.

Eventually, the 1.3 billion people will topple the oppressive government. This I am expecting will happen before 2025; but blood will be spilt and the CCP and Xi Jinping will not go quietly.