Ukraine Invasion | How will it end?

Ukraine was invaded by Putin on the 24 February, 2022.

The communist party of China was no doubt silently supporting Putin on this and they want to test the waters to see how the world would react should they attack Taiwan in the same way.

Unfortunately for Putin, the Russian army were not well trained, strategy was not well thought out and supply chain arrangements disorganised. Furthermore, Ukraine put up stiff resistance against their invaders thwarting Putin’s plan of a quick and decisive victory. It has been rumoured that Putin was expecting the invasion to last no more than a week but yet after 10 days little headway has been made.

A prolonged war will be like a war of attrition for Putin and too costly in the long run; with the western sanctions on Russian banks and massive depreciation of the Ruble financing a prolonged war that may turn increasingly Guerilla may not be something Putin is prepared to do. If decisive victory cannot be achieved within 4 – 6 weeks Putin may have to look at other options.

Given the resistance witnessed so far from the Ukrainians let us assume that Putin would not be able to occupy Ukraine in the next 4 – 6 weeks so what are his options?

Option (i) Withdraw from Ukraine

Given Putin’s character and his inability to handle losing; this option would only be possible if somehow Ukraine would cede to certain terms in the negotiations elected by Putin so that he could claim victory at home. Given the stalemate at the last 3 negotiations it seems difficult for this to happen unless some extrinsic forces should enter the situation. Without some form of victory Putin would face a very precarious position back home and he maybe become ousted given the immense damage he had done to Russia and erosion of wealth amongst the country’s most influential people.

Option (ii) Nuclear Option

This unthinkable option would cause irreversible damage to much of the environment, kill many innocent civilians and start 3rd world war. Russia will also suffer from this as the nuclear clouds and particles float back into Russia bring radiation poisoning to its own people. With all of its foibles, democracy has in place checks and balances to ensure that no leader has this kind of power; no leader would be able to stay in power for 20 years and have such unbridled power.

This option would draw Europe and America in and it will be the 3rd world war and a large percentage of the human race would be wiped out and much of the world’s agricultural produce would become radio-active and thus inedible for decades to come.

Option (iii) Putin Gets Ousted at Home

Make no mistake; this was Putin’s invasion although there may have been a small coterie of sycophants around him whom would have supported him. A prolonged invasion is extremely costly and Russian being ostracised; what may happen would be for a rebellion within his own cabinet that overthrows Putin and removes him from power. Once this happens, the new leader can claim that the attack on Ukraine was not representative of the Russian people, leading to immediate withdrawal of troops and possible lifting of sanctions on Russia.

Option (iii) would obviously be the favoured choice for everyone.